{"id":726,"date":"2021-05-13T13:43:55","date_gmt":"2021-05-13T17:43:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/newsletters.asucollegeoflaw.com\/irls\/?p=726"},"modified":"2021-05-13T13:45:29","modified_gmt":"2021-05-13T17:45:29","slug":"bolivias-2019-election-and-beyond-coup-or-popular-uprising","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsletters.asucollegeoflaw.com\/irls\/2021\/05\/13\/bolivias-2019-election-and-beyond-coup-or-popular-uprising\/","title":{"rendered":"Bolivia\u2019s 2019 Election and Beyond: Coup or Popular Uprising?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"726\" class=\"elementor elementor-726\" data-elementor-settings=\"[]\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-section-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-55934cf elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"55934cf\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5e1704f\" data-id=\"5e1704f\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3936526 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3936526\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Brent Bihr.<\/strong> <em>Brent is a recent JD graduate (2021) of the Sandra Day O\u2019Connor College of Law at Arizona State University. While an undergraduate, Brent spent a summer as an intern at the U.S. Embassy in Bolivia. He hopes to become a federal prosecutor focusing on border crime following his two-year clerkship in the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico.<\/em><\/p><p>Observers of Latin American politics are divided in their views of the 2019 Bolivia elections and their aftermath, with some calling it a \u201cmilitary coup\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2020\/06\/08\/the-nyt-admits-key-falsehoods-that-drove-last-years-coup-in-bolivia-falsehoods-peddled-by-the-u-s-its-media-and-the-nyt\/\"><sup><u>[1]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> and others a \u201cpopular\u201d uprising.<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/evo-morales-did-a-coup-force-6b2c94306089451d9761878c9f7ce2f1\"><sup><u>[2]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> In 2019, significant electoral irregularities led Bolivians to cast off President Evo Morales, an increasingly unpopular and authoritarian leader. Despite his unpopularity, the Bolivian police and military prematurely pressured Morales to leave power rather than allowing for a re-vote or a runoff. In turn, Bolivia\u2019s choppy political waters returned Morales\u2019s party to power in October 2020\u2014sans Morales. This blog post explains why neither \u201ccoup\u201d nor \u201cpopular uprising\u201d accurately describes Bolivia\u2019s 2019 elections. Rather, a proper understanding of the events of the election illuminates the current political situation in Bolivia. It may also contain lessons for elections in the United States.<\/p><p>Bolivia is a country historically plagued by political turbulence, to which President Evo Morales brought a semblance of stability following his election in 2005.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2019\/10\/23\/bolivias-morales-says-coup-in-progress-as-rivals-dispute-vote\"><sup><u>[3]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> Morales ruled from the helm of his party, the left-wing Movement Toward Socialism (MAS).<a href=\"#_ftn4\" name=\"_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a> He quickly aligned himself with other leftist Latin American strongmen such as Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.<a href=\"https:\/\/venezuelanalysis.com\/news\/10962\"><sup><u>[5]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> Like his role models, Morales\u2019s regime routinely targeted dissenting media outlets, limited freedom of association, manipulated opinion polls, and subjected human rights groups to verbal abuse and targeted tax investigations.<a href=\"#_ftn6\" name=\"_ftnref6\">[6]<\/a> Morales and his party also systemically cowed the Bolivian judiciary in order to maintain power and persecute political opponents.<a href=\"#_ftn7\" name=\"_ftnref7\"><sup>[7]<\/sup><\/a> Some of Morales\u2019s political opponents faced as many as forty criminal charges at once.<a href=\"#_ftn8\" name=\"_ftnref8\"><sup>[8]<\/sup><\/a> To clear his path to the 2019 election, Morales had the MAS-dominated Constitutional Court overturn a 2016 constitutional referendum after Bolivians voted to bar Morales from running for an unconstitutional fourth term.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-bolivia-election-ticktock-insight\/morales-lost-bolivia-after-shock-mutiny-by-police-idUSKBN1XO2PQ\"><sup><u>[9]<\/u><\/sup><\/a><\/p><p>Despite his authoritarian tendencies, Morales traditionally enjoyed strong support from indigenous Bolivians who benefited from greater economic benefits under his leadership.<a href=\"#_ftn10\" name=\"_ftnref10\"><sup>[10]<\/sup><\/a> But by the time of the 2019 elections, many Bolivians had turned against Morales as a candidate.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/10\/29\/world\/americas\/Bolivia-election-explainer-lessons.html?action=click&amp;block=more_in_recirc&amp;impression_id=aa74bb54-1c8f-11eb-9594-559bf68043a8&amp;index=5&amp;pgtype=Article&amp;region=footer\"><sup><u>[11]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> Traditional sources of MAS support, indigenous Bolivians and the Bolivian Worker\u2019s Confederation, turned against Morales following clashes over tribal lands, Morales\u2019 ostentatious, new presidential palace, and electoral irregularities.<a href=\"#_ftn12\" name=\"_ftnref12\"><sup>[12]<\/sup><\/a> Even in Morales\u2019s base of registered MAS voters, only 26 percent would cast a ballot at all in 2019.<a href=\"#_ftn13\" name=\"_ftnref13\"><sup>[13]<\/sup><\/a> Dissatisfaction within the police and military led to their eventual alliance with the anti-Morales demonstrators who precipitated Morales\u2019s resignation.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2019\/oct\/25\/bolivia-evo-morales-narrowly-wins-fourth-presidential-term\"><sup><u>[14]<\/u><\/sup><\/a><\/p><p>Facing these political challenges, Morales and his loyalists had an incentive to cheat in the 2019 elections. Morales\u2019s chances for victory were much better in the first round of voting, when he would face a fractured opposition of eight candidates<a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.net\/report\/observing-the-observers-the-oas-in-the-2019-bolivian-elections\/\">.<sup><u>[15]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> When Bolivians went to the polls on October 20, 2019, Morales would need to beat the runner-up by 10 percentage points to avoid a runoff election later in the year.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/10\/21\/world\/americas\/Bolivia-election-vote-count.html\"><sup><u>[16]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> In a runoff, only one candidate would have stood against Morales, and the opposition vote would have consolidated behind that single candidate.<\/p><p>On the night of the 2019 election, Bolivia\u2019s preliminary vote count reported that Morales held a 7.9 percentage point lead over the runner-up\u2014not enough to avoid a runoff.<a href=\"#_ftn17\" name=\"_ftnref17\">[17]<\/a> Thirty minutes later, the preliminary vote count inexplicably froze for an entire twenty-four hours.<a href=\"#_ftn18\" name=\"_ftnref18\">[18]<\/a> When the count resumed a day later, Morales\u2019 lead had conveniently jumped to 10.15 percentage points\u2014just enough to avoid a runoff election.<a href=\"#_ftn19\" name=\"_ftnref19\">[19]<\/a> Bolivia\u2019s opposition parties cried foul, and their claims of fraud were soon joined by the European Union, the United States, and international election observers sent by the Organization of American States (OAS).<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/10\/24\/world\/americas\/bolivian-election-revote.html\"><sup><u>[20]<\/u><\/sup><\/a><\/p><p>Thousands of opposition protestors took to the streets following the election, paralyzing major cities around Bolivia and clashing with pro-Morales demonstrators and security personnel.<a href=\"#_ftn21\" name=\"_ftnref21\">[21]<\/a> In response to the spiraling violence, Morales agreed to allow the OAS to audit the election results and promised to abide by the recommendation of the audit team.<a href=\"#_ftn22\" name=\"_ftnref22\"><sup>[22]<\/sup><\/a> Subsequent OAS reports found significant electoral irregularities, including falsified electoral signatures and the transfer of election data to unauthorized computer servers.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.oas.org\/en\/media_center\/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-109\/19\"><sup><u>[23]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> The OAS report recommended a new election be held.<a href=\"#_ftn24\" name=\"_ftnref24\">[24]<\/a> Before Morales could comply, members of the police and military began joining opposition protests, vocally refusing to repress protestors.<a href=\"#_ftn25\" name=\"_ftnref25\">[25]<\/a> After the commander-in-chief of the military recommended that Morales step down, Morales resigned and fled the country.<a href=\"#_ftn26\" name=\"_ftnref26\">[26]<\/a> He complained that the military\u2019s failure to back him constituted a right-wing \u201ccoup,\u201d while the opposition hailed the military for refusing to suppress a \u201cpopular revolt.\u201d<a href=\"#_ftn27\" name=\"_ftnref27\">[27]<\/a><\/p><p>Following Morales\u2019 ouster, the interim government quickly became unpopular and was widely criticized for political reprisals, crackdowns on pro-MAS demonstrators, and the mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/report\/2020\/09\/11\/justice-weapon\/political-persecution-bolivia\"><sup><u>[28]<\/u><\/sup><\/a> However, the interim government also implemented much-needed change to the electoral system ahead of the 2020 Bolivian elections.<a href=\"#_ftn29\" name=\"_ftnref29\">[29]<\/a> After a year of bloody turmoil, Bolivians returned to the polls in October 2020 and elected Morales\u2019 hand-picked successor to the presidency.<a href=\"#_ftn30\" name=\"_ftnref30\">[30]<\/a> The elections were hailed by all participants and by international observers as free, fair, and \u201cexemplary.\u201d<a href=\"#_ftn31\" name=\"_ftnref31\">[31]<\/a><\/p><p>Morales\u2019 supporters were quick to hold up the 2020 election results as proof that the aftermath of the 2019 election was a coordinated right-wing and international conspiracy to oust a popular indigenous president.<a href=\"#_ftn32\" name=\"_ftnref32\">[32]<\/a> The reality is quite different. True irregularities, Morales\u2019 authoritarian tendencies, and his growing unpopularity legitimately called into doubt the 2019 election results. In contrast, the unpopularity of the interim government and the resounding integrity of the 2020 elections left no room for any observers to question the result. The contrasting results in 2019 and 2020 are most likely explained by many Bolivians, including Morales\u2019s traditional base, being tired of his personal stranglehold on office. Even so, less haste on the part of the police and military to pressure Morales to resign before the runoff might have spared Bolivia a year of turmoil, destruction, and bloodshed. Americans, like Bolivians in 2019, are right to be wary of attacks on an independent judiciary, politically motivated prosecutions, manipulations of opinion polls, and campaigns to censor dissenting voices. Abusing electoral victory can plant the seeds of political repression and turmoil.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> Glenn Greenwald, <em>The New York Times Admits Key Falsehoods That Drove Last Year\u2019s Coup in Bolivia: Falsehoods Peddled by the U.S., Its Media, and the Times<\/em>, The Intercept, (June 8, 2020), https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2020\/06\/08\/the-nyt-admits-key-falsehoods-that-drove-last-years-coup-in-bolivia-falsehoods-peddled-by-the-u-s-its-media-and-the-nyt\/.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> Christine Armario, <em>AP Explains: Did a coup force Bolivia\u2019s Evo Morales out?<\/em>, AP, (Nov. 11, 2019), https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/evo-morales-did-a-coup-force-6b2c94306089451d9761878c9f7ce2f1<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> Jihan Abdalla, <em>Bolivia\u2019s Morales says \u2018coup in progress\u2019 as rivals dispute <\/em>vote, Aljazeera, (Oct. 23, 2019), https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2019\/10\/23\/bolivias-morales-says-coup-in-progress-as-rivals-dispute-vote.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref4\" name=\"_ftn4\">[4]<\/a> <em>Id.<\/em><\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref5\" name=\"_ftn5\">[5]<\/a> <em>Id.<\/em>; Z.C. Dutka, Re-Elected Evo Morales Dedicates Victory to Hugo Chavez, Venezuelananalysis.com (Oct. 14, 2014), https:\/\/venezuelanalysis.com\/news\/10962.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref6\" name=\"_ftn6\">[6]<\/a> Dutka, <em>supra <\/em>note 5.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref7\" name=\"_ftn7\">[7]<\/a> U.S. Dep\u2019t of State, Bureau of Democracy, H.R. and Lab., Bolivia 2019 Human Rights Report (2020).<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref8\" name=\"_ftn8\">[8]<\/a> U.S. Dep\u2019t of State, Bureau of Democracy, H.R. and Lab., Bolivia 2017 Human Rights Report (2018).<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref9\" name=\"_ftn9\">[9]<\/a> Ironically, the constitution Morales violated was the very document Morales had worked to push through in 2009. Gram Slattery, <em>How Evo Morales lost control of Bolivia<\/em>, Reuters (Nov. 14, 2019), https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-bolivia-election-ticktock-insight\/morales-lost-bolivia-after-shock-mutiny-by-police-idUSKBN1XO2PQ.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref10\" name=\"_ftn10\">[10]<\/a> Bolivia 2019 Human Rights Report, <em>supra<\/em> note 7.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref11\" name=\"_ftn11\">[11]<\/a> Julie Turkewitz, <em>From Bolivia, Lessons for a Successful Election<\/em>, N.Y. Times (Oct. 29, 2020), https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/10\/29\/world\/americas\/Bolivia-election-explainer-lessons.html?action=click&amp;block=more_in_recirc&amp;impression_id=aa74bb54-1c8f-11eb-9594-559bf68043a8&amp;index=5&amp;pgtype=Article&amp;region=footer.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref12\" name=\"_ftn12\">[12]<\/a> Slattery, <em>supra <\/em>note 9; Bolivia 2019 Human Rights Report, <em>supra<\/em> note 7.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref13\" name=\"_ftn13\">[13]<\/a> Slattery, <em>supra <\/em>note 9<em>.<\/em><\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref14\" name=\"_ftn14\">[14]<\/a> Dan Collyns, <em>Bolivia: narrow win for Evo Morales announced in presidential election<\/em>, Guardian (Oct. 24, 2019), https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2019\/oct\/25\/bolivia-evo-morales-narrowly-wins-fourth-presidential-term.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref15\" name=\"_ftn15\">[15]<\/a> Jake Johnston &amp; David Rosnik, <em>Observing the Observers: The OAS in the 2019 Bolivian Elections<\/em>, Ctr. For Econ. &amp; Pol\u2019y Res. (Mar. 10, 2019), https:\/\/cepr.net\/report\/observing-the-observers-the-oas-in-the-2019-bolivian-elections\/.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref16\" name=\"_ftn16\">[16]<\/a> Ernesto Londo\u00f1o, <em>President Accused of Fraud in Bolivia Election as He Opens Big Vote Lead<\/em>, N.Y. Times (Oct. 23, 2019), https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/10\/21\/world\/americas\/Bolivia-election-vote-count.html.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref17\" name=\"_ftn17\">[17]<\/a> Johnston &amp; Rosnik, <em>supra <\/em>note 15.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref18\" name=\"_ftn18\">[18]<\/a> <em>Id.<\/em><\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref19\" name=\"_ftn19\">[19]<\/a> Londo\u00f1o, <em>supra <\/em>note 16.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref20\" name=\"_ftn20\">[20]<\/a> Associated Press, <em>Bolivian Court Orders Partial Presidential Revote<\/em>, N.Y. Times (Oct. 24, 2019), https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/10\/24\/world\/americas\/bolivian-election-revote.html.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref21\" name=\"_ftn21\">[21]<\/a> Bolivia 2019 Human Rights Report, <em>supra<\/em> note 7.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref22\" name=\"_ftn22\">[22]<\/a> Johnston &amp; Rosnik, <em>supra <\/em>note 15.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref23\" name=\"_ftn23\">[23]<\/a> Press Release, Org. of Am. States, Final Report of the Audit of the Elections in Bolivia: Intentional Manipulation and Serious Irregularities Made it Impossible to Validate the Results (Dec. 4, 2019), https:\/\/www.oas.org\/en\/media_center\/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-109\/19.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref24\" name=\"_ftn24\">[24]<\/a> Johnston &amp; Rosnik, <em>supra <\/em>note 15.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref25\" name=\"_ftn25\">[25]<\/a> <em>Id.<\/em>; Londo\u00f1o, <em>supra <\/em>note 16.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref26\" name=\"_ftn26\">[26]<\/a> Slattery, <em>supra <\/em>note 9.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref27\" name=\"_ftn27\">[27]<\/a> <em>Id.<\/em><\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref28\" name=\"_ftn28\">[28]<\/a> C\u00e9sar Mu\u00f1oz Acebes, <em>Justice as a Weapon: Political Persecution in Bolivia<\/em>, Human Rights Watch (Sep. 11, 2020), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/report\/2020\/09\/11\/justice-weapon\/political-persecution-bolivia\">https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/report\/2020\/09\/11\/justice-weapon\/political-persecution-bolivia<\/a>; Turkewitz, <em>supra <\/em>note 11.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref29\" name=\"_ftn29\">[29]<\/a> Turkewitz, <em>supra <\/em>note 11.<\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref30\" name=\"_ftn30\">[30]<\/a> <em>Id.<\/em><\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref31\" name=\"_ftn31\">[31]<\/a> <em>Id.<\/em><\/p><p><a href=\"#_ftnref32\" name=\"_ftn32\">[32]<\/a> Johnston &amp; Rosnik, <em>supra <\/em>note 15.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brent Bihr. Brent is a recent JD graduate (2021) of the Sandra Day O\u2019Connor College of Law at Arizona State University. While an undergraduate, Brent spent a summer as an intern at the U.S. Embassy in Bolivia. He hopes to become a federal prosecutor focusing on border crime following his two-year clerkship in the U.S. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,34,23,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-irls","category-irls-fellows","category-news","category-research"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bolivia\u2019s 2019 Election and Beyond: Coup or Popular Uprising? - International Rule of Law and Security Newsletter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/newsletters.asucollegeoflaw.com\/irls\/2021\/05\/13\/bolivias-2019-election-and-beyond-coup-or-popular-uprising\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bolivia\u2019s 2019 Election and Beyond: Coup or Popular Uprising? - International Rule of Law and Security Newsletter\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Brent Bihr. Brent is a recent JD graduate (2021) of the Sandra Day O\u2019Connor College of Law at Arizona State University. While an undergraduate, Brent spent a summer as an intern at the U.S. Embassy in Bolivia. 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